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Industry research report on charging piles: driven by market and policy, the charging pile market space continues to expand.

Industry research report on charging piles: driven by market and policy, the charging pile market space continues to expand.


一、The market and policies jointly drive the development of charging pile industry

1.1. The wave of electrification in the automobile industry has arrived.

The development of electric vehicles has entered a high-speed growth stage. According to EVTank data, in 2021, the global sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.7 million, a substantial increase of 102.4% over the same period of last year. The global penetration rate of electric vehicles also increased from 0.8% in 2015 to 7.74% in 2021. It is estimated that the global sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 8.5 million and 22 million in 2022 and 2025 respectively. According to the data of the Federation, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 31.8% in September. It is estimated that the sales of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 6 million and 10 million in 2022 and 2025.

By the end of September 2022, the number of new energy vehicles had reached 11.49 million, with 3.713 million new vehicles registered in the first three quarters. In the first three quarters of 2022, there were 3.713 million new energy vehicles registered nationwide, an increase of 1.842 million or 98.48% over the same period of last year. It is estimated that by 2025, the number of new energy vehicles in China will reach 40 million, accounting for 10% of the total.

1.2. Policy-driven, charging piles are included in the new infrastructure.

In recent years, with the rapid development of charging pile industry, there are still some outstanding problems, such as difficulty in building piles in residential communities, unbalanced development of public charging facilities, and improvement of charging experience of users. In this context, the state has successively issued relevant policies to support the innovation of charging pile related technologies, modes and mechanisms. While solving the development problems of new energy charging piles, it has built a new power system, improved related infrastructure and helped to achieve the "double carbon" goal. In May, 2020, the State Council released the "2020 Government Work Report", which put forward the concept of "new infrastructure" (new infrastructure construction) for the first time, and included charging infrastructure as one of the seven infrastructures. In 2021, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that the current economy is facing three pressures: shrinking demand, supply shock and expected weakening. We should stick to stabilizing words and strengthen policy efforts. As one of the new infrastructure components, charging piles will accelerate the pace of construction under the main line of steady growth. In January, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the Implementation Opinions of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments on Further Improving the Service Support Capability of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (No.53 [2022] of the Energy Development and Reform Commission), which proposed that by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the charging support capability of electric vehicles in China would be further improved, and a moderately advanced, balanced, intelligent and efficient charging infrastructure system would be formed, which could meet more than 2,000 requirements. A number of policies have made the development direction and goal of China's new energy charging pile industry gradually clear, providing beneficial soil for the development of the industry.

Government subsidies have shifted from car replenishment to pile replenishment, from construction subsidies to operation subsidies. In 2016, the Ministry of Finance and other five departments issued the "Notice on the 13th Five-Year Plan for New Energy Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Incentive Policy and Strengthening the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", which has given financial awards to the construction and operation of charging infrastructure. In 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments "Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capability of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure" clearly proposed to increase financial support. First, optimize the financial support policies, and second, improve the financial service capability. In addition, local governments have clearly issued policies related to charging pile construction subsidies and charging operation subsidies. It can be found that the government's financial subsidy policy inclines to the supply side, showing a change from "new energy vehicle subsidy" to "charging facility construction subsidy+charging facility operation subsidy".

1.3. The charging standard formulation was actively promoted.

At present, there are mainly five charging pile standards in the world, namely: Chinese national standard GB/T, CCS1 American standard (combo/Type1), CCS2 European standard (combo/Type 2), and Japanese standard CHAdeMO. At the same time, Tesla has its own independent charging interface standard.

The widely used charging standards in the world include CCS and CHAdeMo, which support many models. Among them, CCS charging mode combines AC and DC interfaces into one, which reduces the number of interfaces and the manufacturing cost of chargers and body parts. It is promoted by major European and American car companies and has great market potential. The number of charging facilities adopting the national standard GB/T 20234 is the largest in the world. At present, Tesla models exported to China adopt AC and DC charging interfaces of GB/T20234, while Tesla models exported to Europe adopt CCS Combo 2 interface, which can all use charging piles that meet local interface standards.

The difference of standards not only causes the current situation that the subsequent global charging interfaces are not unified and the communication protocols are incompatible, but also leads to the urgent need of integration at present. As an important driving force for the development of international electric vehicle technology and industry, China should actively participate in the formulation of international standards, guide the coordination and unification of global charging standards, and play a greater role in the formulation of new charging standards such as high-power charging, wireless charging and V2G in the future.

At present, two sets of revised charging standards are being prepared in China: one is the upgraded version of 2015 charging national standard and the other is ChaoJi charging standard. At present, the common problems of DC charging system are: the size is too large; Insufficient mechanical strength; Backward compatibility is not considered. These problems have been improved in the 2015 charging national standard upgraded version and "Chaoji" technical standard: the 2015 charging national standard upgraded version has improved many problems left over from the past, made strict requirements on tolerance size, increased the structure of locking device, added electronic locks at the car end, increased the rated voltage to 1500V, and increased the current up to 800A under active cooling, and increased the physical switch of the car pile to solve the problem of PE needle breakage, thus realizing remote wake-up. However, as it is still in the process of soliciting opinions, it may be slightly adjusted before release. On the basis of the 2015 national standard, ChaoJi standard draws on the experience of the four mainstream interfaces in the world, and is superior to the 2015 national standard in structural design, mechanical strength, charging safety, compatibility, high-power charging, and subsequent new function expansion capability. In addition, ChaoJi standard interface can be compatible with GB/T2015, Japanese CHAdeMO, American CCS1 and European CCS2 charging systems through system control strategies such as adapter and specially designed guiding circuit.

二、The charging pile market space

2.1. The number of charging piles increased rapidly.

With the rapid development of China's new energy vehicle industry, the sales volume and possession of electric vehicles have increased rapidly, and the demand for charging has increased rapidly. At the same time, the charging pile industry support policy has been continuously introduced, and government subsidies have shifted from car repair to pile repair, from construction subsidies to operation subsidies, thus promoting the accelerated development of the new energy charging pile industry. By the end of September 2022, the number of charging piles in China has increased from 66,000 in 2015 to 4.488 million, an increase of 68 times in eight years. Among them, the number of public charging piles has reached 1.636 million, accounting for 36%, the number of private charging piles has risen to 2.852 million, accounting for 64%, and private charging piles have maintained a faster growth. In terms of regional distribution, at present, China's public charging infrastructure is mainly concentrated in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Beijing and other eastern coastal areas.

2.2. Market size of charging pile construction

According to relevant national plans and forecasts, by 2025, the number of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 40 million. The policy requires that charging piles be built moderately ahead of schedule, and the support for charging pile construction will be enhanced. Referring to the ratio of vehicles to piles over the years, we expect that the ratio of vehicles to piles will increase from about 3:1 to 2.5:1 in 2022-2025, and the number of charging piles will reach 16.54 million (including public piles and private piles) by 2025, of which the number of public piles will reach 6.6144 million and the number of private piles will reach 9.92 million. According to the data released by China Charging Alliance, the general charging power of DC charging piles is ≥60kW. According to the current unit price of DC charging module 0.37 RMB /W, according to the price trend of DC charging module from 2015 to 2021, the average price per watt from 2023 to 2025 is about 0.35 RMB /W, and from 2025 to 2030, the average price per watt is about 0.30 RMB /w.

The unit price of DC charging pile (taking 60kW as an example) is 44,000 yuan. According to the price trend of DC charging module, it is estimated that the unit price of 60kW DC charging pile will be reduced to 42,000 yuan in 2023-2025; The unit price of AC charging piles is between 1,000 and 3,000 yuan, among which the unit price of charging piles distributed by car factories is lower around 1000 yuan, and the unit price of AC piles sold by equipment manufacturer 2C is higher between 2,000 and 3,000 yuan, the average unit price of private AC charging piles is 1,500 yuan, and the average unit price of public AC piles is 3,000 yuan. According to the increment of vehicle piles and the unit price of charging piles, it is estimated that between 2023 and 2025, the market space of public charging piles will be 153.63 billion yuan and that of private charging piles will be 12.67 billion yuan.

2.3. The scale of charging operation market continues to expand.

Assume that the average power consumption per hundred kilometers of electric vehicles in the future will be 12kwh, and each vehicle will drive 15,000 kilometers per year on average, that is, each vehicle will consume about 1,800 kWh per year. In 2021, the number of new energy vehicles will reach 7.84 million, and the annual electricity consumption will be nearly 14 billion kWh. It is estimated that by 2025, the number of new energy vehicles will reach 40 million, and the annual electricity consumption will reach 72 billion kWh; By 2030, the number of new energy vehicles will reach 100 million, and the annual electricity consumption will reach 180 billion kWh. The charging price of electric vehicles basically consists of "electricity charge+service charge". It is assumed that 30% of electricity is generated by public piles and 70% by private charging piles. The average electricity charge for public piles is 0.7 yuan, the service charge is 0.4—0.8 yuan, and the electricity charge for private charging piles is 0.5 yuan.

In 2021, it is estimated that China's new energy vehicle charging electricity market will be about 14.13 billion yuan, and the service fee market will be about 1.7-3.4 billion yuan. Assuming that the electricity price does not change greatly, the market size will triple by 2025, and the electricity fee+service market size will exceed 46 billion; By 2030, the market scale will be expanded by 10 times, and the electricity fee+service market scale will exceed 100 billion.

三、The charging pile industry development trend

3.1. The popularization of high-voltage fast charging technology will solve the problem of slow charging.

With the increase of the electric capacity and cruising range of the whole vehicle, the convenience of charging has become a major factor restricting the use experience of electric vehicles. At present, DC charging piles have low power, with 25% charging power at 60kW, 120kW and 150kW charging piles accounting for 30% and 32% respectively, and only 5% of single gun power exceeds 150kW. To make the charging experience of electric vehicles similar to the refueling speed, it takes at least 250kW of power to charge 30~80% of the 100kWh battery within 12 minutes; The charging power must reach at least 480kW when fully charged in 6 minutes. From the technical realization way, there are two technical routes to realize high-power ultra-fast charging: one is high current, and the other is high voltage. The former requires high thermal management and is difficult to popularize; The latter can achieve maximum power charging in a wider range due to the advantages of reducing energy consumption, improving battery life, reducing weight, saving space, etc., so as to meet the future fast charging demand. Therefore, the promotion of high-voltage fast charging technology represented by increasing charging voltage has become a future trend, and host manufacturers such as Porsche, Hyundai, BYD, Great Wall, etc. have put forward corresponding fast charging technology supporting facilities for the future.

At present, the battery voltage of electric vehicles is around 400V. If the existing standard charging pile is used, the BEV with a battery capacity of 80-100kWh will charge 30%-80% in 400 V architecture, which can only support the maximum charging rate of about 1C, while it can support the charging rate of more than 2C in 800V architecture. If Chaoji charging pile is adopted after 2021, the maximum output current is 500A, which can meet the charging demand of high-end models 4C, and the voltage should also be greater than 800V. If the automobile manufacturer is equipped with 800V high-voltage battery, the charging amount per unit time will be 3 times or 4 times that of the previous one, thus shortening the charging time to at least 25% of the original one, and achieving 30%-80% full charge in 7.5 minutes.

Domestic car companies mostly use high-voltage schemes to realize fast charging, and DC fast charging is mainly based on 400V platform models. In order to realize super fast charging, various car companies have launched 800V platform models. 800V has become a phased industry standard for high-voltage fast charging, and it will evolve to 1000-1500V in the future. In view of the fact that the 800V high-voltage platform can effectively solve the anxiety of energy supplement, at present, most domestic automakers have made relevant layouts. In 2021, BYD, Geely, Great Wall, Tucki, Zero Run, etc. successively released the layout plan of 800V high-voltage technology, and car companies such as Ideality and Weilai are also actively preparing related technologies. From the perspective of mass production time, new cars based on 800V high-voltage technical solutions of major auto companies will be listed after 2022.

In terms of battery performance adaptation, Kirin Battery, the third generation CTP technology released by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, can meet the requirements of high-voltage fast charging and support 4C charging. The system integration has reached a new high in the world, the volume utilization rate has exceeded 72%, and the energy density can reach 255Wh/kg. It can realize the whole vehicle's 1000-kilometer battery life, and will be mass-produced and listed in 2023. It is expected that more and more models will be adapted to high-voltage fast charging in 2023, and there will be no high-voltage fast charging in automobile hardware.

The large-scale overcharge carrying capacity of the power grid is insufficient, and at present, overcharge can only be used as an emergency auxiliary charging method. Take Shenzhen Power Grid as an example: According to public information, in 2020, the average load power of Shenzhen Power Grid will be 16 million KW, and the peak power in summer will reach 20 million KW. At present, the power level of a DC fast charging is 120KW. Assuming that 150,000 electric vehicles are charged at the same time, the total load power will be 18 million KW, which will be greater than the sum of all existing loads in Shenzhen. This leads to the need to double the capacity of the power grid to accommodate 150,000 vehicles. According to public data, it is estimated that the number of electric vehicles in Shenzhen may increase to 2 million in 2025, and the capacity of the power grid is far from enough to bear such a load. The fast charging/overcharge+energy storage mode helps to reduce the pressure on the power grid. Two-way DC fast charging has an energy storage structure, which can not only charge the battery pack in the power grid, but also discharge the battery pack to the power grid, so it can effectively reduce the impact on the power grid and increase the acceptance capacity of the existing power grid. At the same time, it can also earn the income of peak-valley electricity price, and realize the access of photovoltaic roof and other systems, with obvious advantages.

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